The L’Aquila experience highlighted challenges in how we use earthquake Prediction and Early Warnings information. It is suggested that the fault lays with the fact that there has been an attempt use ‘Prediction’ as a ‘Real Time Early Warning’, generating uncertainties of scale and timings plus confused decisions and messaging by Governments and media.
Consequently we believe within the Soluzion Team that a new approach is required. Prediction is of little use to society without the ability to actually trigger an alarm at the onset of the event. We need to remove the uncertainty, arming Society with ‘Real Time’ Early Warning Sensor and Communication and Life Modelling Systems. Long term Prediction is vital, so that critical infrastructure is made aware of their need to prepare, but it’s the short term Reliable Prediction that needs to be developed and integrated as a key tool in conjunction with the ‘real time early warning’ systems.
There is also a wrong assumption that Governments must pay for a device into every individuals hands; the reality is that if the regional ‘network system’ such as Soluzion, is created, society will be able to individually buy into that network for the cost of 20 packets of cigarettes per person using which ever mode suits them, be it by the internet, SMS/UMS or direct to Speaker alarms on their office or bedroom walls, all of which enhances the Soluzion net work system that also deploys Public Address systems and direct messaging into the Media.
It is recommended that within this proposed new approach, society must within all of their sectors hold once or twice yearly exercises or ‘shakeouts’;[not a new suggestion there] But the difference is that these don’t finish simply at the end of the one hour ‘evacuation’ drill; for the Reliable Prediction science to be integrated the sectors must then remain on standby for the following five days, as the norm, to varying degrees depending if a school, factory or emergency service, Government NDMA, a sector of critical infrastructure or the family at home………. Consequently this strategy enables that when a reliable 5 day prediction is relayed, an exercise is immediately activated by authorities who receive the reliable prediction message, enabling sectors to take a variety of precautionary measures, then when the actual seismic event is triggered by the Real Time Early warning System providing the two to forty seconds of physical warning to the approach of the destructive S-Wave ‘everyone’ is ‘switched-on’ and able to effectively use the real time early warning alarm period. Protocols and SOPs must be agreed and implemented within the Contingency Plan. Pre-cursor hazard mapping and predictive event modelling must be prepared, however the Soluzion Team believe that real time life modelling is capable of being adapted and developed to enable a wide range of actual event information to be displayed for NDMAs to use effectively the reliable prediction time to organise viable evacuations and repositioning of emergency services and front line first responders followed by the system switching to be used during the event to further react to the complexities of an unfolding event where a variety of issues may have adverse affects upon the already implemented actions.
Some existing early warning systems rely upon SMS messaging at the onset of a seismic event through individuals loading ‘apps’ to their mobiles. However there are many inherent challenges with this SMS approach; such as reliance upon the majority of the population, especially the most vulnerable in the poorer sectors in owning a blackberry or android phone; That the system can instantly message all people and not incur message delivery delays so often experienced with SMS, as seismic warnings are totally reliant upon just a few seconds of warning; that the SMS system can cope with the overload or messaging 10 million people within a mega city; that the power supply is not interrupted or if a secondary event requires an equal warning such as for a tsunami or flash flood or wild fire can be prioritised. Previous experience demonstrates that SMS systems are not robust. The Soluzion System has identified that a UMS system overcomes these challenges plus we can then incorporate our bespoke APP to allow all systems users to receive not only an instant and reliable alarm but also the expected intensity and countdown to their location of the approaching S-Wave, vital if you are to gauge the appropriate reaction within seconds.
To achieve a comprehensive practical system and enable the necessary dynamics of prediction and real time early warning, SOLUZION needed to integrate various additional technologies to maximise the potential of future reliable prediction and existing real time early warning alarm and communication and real time ‘life save’ modelling systems. The Soluzion System has been Dynamically designed to adapt and incorporate and integrate present and future technology developments offering Governments flexibility and cost effectiveness for their multiple hazardous environments and vulnerable communities.
