We have five different types of warning to consider.
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Real time early warning; when the event has actually started but has yet to arrive at your location
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Early Warning; when the event is known that it will happen imminently
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Early Warning Forecast that the event will happen with consequence in the future.
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Reliable prediction of an imminent event without precise timings.
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Prediction of an event which may or may not happen.
Why do we categorize warnings?
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We categorize early warnings so that we can identify, prioritize and initiate or activate the Urgency that either society or administrations or critical infrastructure needs to receive and act upon the early warning.
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It’s dependant on the time scales of the event happening & down to the urgency in which a sector within society must react either to mitigate, minimize, prepare for or to avoid the event
What do we mean by the ‘social science’ of early warning?
I expect you have heard of ‘crowd dynamics’ within a sporting area stadium or in a busy train station……… but now think about a 5million person City being panicked into action not knowing where to go, what to do, how to do it…………………
We have considerable work to do in conjunction with setting up the science and hardware to enable a comprehensive early warning system…… we must prepare the people, ‘the message receivers’. And this includes the ‘Administration’
The ‘social science’ of early warning is:
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the understanding of how people react within communities;
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how to communicate with those communities;
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how to prepare them so that they understand how to receive an early warning;
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and how to communicate enough information so that they can make an intelligent decision of how to react